12 January 2024 , 14:49
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The world's most turbulent flight routes have been revealed, with destinations including Milan, Geneva and Zurich making the list.
A new turbulence recording model has detailed the common flight paths on which commercial jets are most likely to be thrown about in a sudden patch of turbulence. While it is impossible to predict with complete certainty when a plane will hit a bumpy zone, it is much more common on certain routes than others.
Turbulence prediction website Turbli has analysed around 150,000 routes and found which were the most turbulent in 2023. It is likely that those same routes will also face rough patches to similar levels in 2024 as well.
Routes are ranked according to “eddy dissipation rate”, which is the “measure of the turbulence intensity at a given spot”, according to Turbli founder Ignacio Gallego Marcos, the Independent reports.
It is difficult to predict turbulence with total accuracy (NurPhoto via Getty Images)At the top of the pile is the 1,180-mile journey between Santiago and Viru Viru International airport in Bolivia. This is not too much of a surprise as the route goes over the Andes. When flying over a mountain at high speed 'mountain waves' are created, which can cause planes to suddenly gain or lose altitude when the air pattern hits them.
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The route between Almaty, in Kazakhstan, and the capital of Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek, ranked second. It is known as being one of the most disrupted routes in the world, with seven people injured during one particularly rocky flight last year.
Six of the most turbulent journeys were domestic routes in Japan and China. According to Mr Gallego Marcos, the routes in Japan and China “are turbulent due to high jet stream activity”. The Jet Stream is a funnel of very strong wind which runs from West to East and hangs about five to seven miles above sea level.
When it comes to Europe, one country is a stand-out in terms of bumpy flights. Switzerland features in the top ten of the global rankings and seven times on the European charts. The dominance of airports in Geneva, Basel or Zurich in the Continental top ten suggests the Alps are responsible for some of the unsettled journeys.
World's top 10 most turbulent flights
- Santiago (SCL) - Santa Cruz (VVI)
- Almaty (ALA) - Bishkek (FRU)
- Lanzhou (LHW) - Chengdu (CTU)
- Centrair (NGO) - Sendai (SDJ)
- Milan (MXP) - Geneva (GVA)
- Lanzhou (LHW) - Xianyang (XIY)
- Osaka (KIX) - Sendai (SDJ)
- Xianyang (XIY) - Chengdu (CTU)
- Xianyang (XIY) - Chongqing (CKG)
- Milan (MXP) - Zurich (ZRH)
Each year millions of passengers endure a stomach sinking patch of turbulence, which is caused by chaotic eddies of air powered by pressure and flow changes. The phenomenon causes more than $500million of damage and delays in the US alone each year, according to the National Centre for Atmospheric Research.
The bad news is that it is getting worse. Research by scientists at the University of Reading in Berkshire, among others, have found that the transatlantic jet stream is 15% stronger than it was in 1970, due to rising temperatures caused by climate change.
Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric science at the university, says that such jet streams are responsible for a large portion of turbulence. The professor believes that climate change is modifying turbulence, and started studying the subject in 2013.
"We ran some computer simulations and found that severe turbulence could double or triple in the coming decades," he told CNN.