Rishi Sunak is under pressure to name a date for the general election as the clock ticks down on this Parliament.
The Prime Minister must send the country to the polls before January 2025 but he could make an announcement at any point on when the vote could be. The under-fire Tory has struggled to revive his party's fortunes after Boris Johnson and Liz Truss's chaos-ridden stints in Downing Street - and the legacy of 14 years of Conservative rule.
Labour has been surging ahead in the polls, maintaining a double digit poll lead for most of the last year. But there is nervousness in Keir Starmer's inner circle that the support will begin to narrow when the party is tested in the heat of an election campaign.
Nigel Farage-founded Reform UK is proving a thorn in the side of the Tories on the right, while the Liberal Democrats are trying to challenge from the other side in the so-called Blue Wall in the south of England.
There's still plenty of time for things to change. So what do the polls tell us about what will happen in a general election and who is on track to win? Here's what you need to know.
Teachers, civil servants and train drivers walk out in biggest strike in decade
The Conservative Party has recorded its lowest vote share since the resignation of Liz Truss, according to the latest voting intention poll from Savanta.
Conservatives: 25% (-2)
Labour: 43% (-1)
Liberal Democrats: 11% (+1);
Reform UK: 9% (+1)
Green: 4% (=);
SNP: 3% (=)
Savanta interviewed 2,032 UK adults aged 18+ online on 8-10 March
Labour has gained three points in Deltapoll's latest survey, while the Tories failed to move forward.
Reform lost one point, while the Lib Dems gained one, putting the two parties with just one point difference.
PCSO numbers plummet as Tories branded 'asleep at the wheel' - see in your area
Labour: 44% (+3)
Conservatives: 27% (=)
Reform: 11% (-1)
Liberal Democrats: 10% (+1)
Green: 4% (-2)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Deltapoll interviewed 1,502 adults in Great Britain between March 8-11. Changes were compared with March 1-4 .
Another poll after the Budget made even grimmer reading for Rishi Sunak.
The survey by People's Polling gave Labour a 28-point lead, with only 18% of voters saying they would back the Tories at the next election.
Labour: 46% (+1)
Conservtive: 18% (-2)
Reform UK: 13% (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 10% (-)
People Polling Limited surveyed 1,734 adults on March 7
A new YouGov poll for The Times found Jeremy Hunt's Budget has failed to move the dial for the struggling Tories.
The survey gave Labour a whopping 27-point lead over Rishi Sunak's party, with 47 per cent of support to the Tories' 20%.
Conservatives: 20 (=)
Labour: 47 (+1)
Liberal Democrats: 9 (+2)
Reform UK: 3 (-1)
Green: 7 (=)
Fieldwork 6 - 7 March
On the eve of the Budget, the Conservatives have been hit by a humiliating blow as the party sinks to its lowest poll rating in almost 50 years.
The Ipsos survey for the Standard found support for the Tories has fallen to 20%, which is the lowest recorded since it started its regular polling in 1978. Here are the results:
Labour: 47% (-2)
Conservatives: 20% (-7)
Lib Dems: 9% (+2)
Green: 8% (+1)
Reform: 8% (+4)
Other: 7% (-)
Ipsos UK interviewed 1,004 adults in Great Britain by phone between February 21 and 28. Changes with January.
Savanta pollsters say "if there was ever" a Labour wobble in the polls, it now "appears to have stabalised".
Here are the results:
Labour: 44% (+2)
Conservatives 26% (-2)
Lib Dems: 10% (=)
Reform UK: 10% (+2)
Green: 4% (=)
SNP: 3% (=);
Other: 4% (-1).
Political Research Director at Savanta Chris Hopkins says: “Ahead of the Rochdale by-election and a make-or-break spring budget, our findings will not make pretty reading for the Conservative Party. Labour's wobble, if there ever was one, appears to have stabilised."
"Reform recording their highest ever vote share in a Savanta poll is notable, but I remain sceptical of their electoral prowess. They certainly have the potential to really hurt the Conservatives at the next election, but their voters are not just Tories-in-disguise. Mobilising their supporters will be incredibly important if they are to achieve anything like a ten per cent vote share at the actual General Election."
Savanta interviewed 2,097 UK adults aged 18+ online on 23-25 February. The poll compared to figures from 16-18 Feb.
The bad economic news last week as the country was plunged into recession does not appear to have Rishi Sunak's electoral hopes, according to the latest survey by YouGov.
Here are the results:
Labour: 46% (+2)
Conservatives: 20% (-4)
Reform UK: 13% (+2)
Lib Dem: 9% (=)
Green: 7% (-1)
SNP: 4% (+1)
YouGov interviewed 2,035 adults in Britain between February 20 and 21. It compared figures with polling carried out between February 14 and 15.
Labour has secured a poll lead even among some of the country’s wealthiest people.
A survey of High Net Worth Individuals found they were almost twice as likely to back Keir Starmer over Rishi Sunak at the election. The research by wealth management firm Saltus showed 27% would support Labour. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats both got the backing of 16%. High Net Worth Individuals are those with investable assets of more than £250,000.
The Saltus Wealth Index tracks confidence of HNWIs in the UK economy and their own personal finances. The Index has risen to 64.4 in this edition, a rise of 4.9 points compared to November 2022, shortly after Liz Truss’s mini-Budget. It still remains lower than the high of 67.7 recorded a few months prior to Ms Truss becoming Prime Minister.
Read the full results.
Keir Starmer has maintained Labour's lead in the polls despite a miserable few days that saw him roll back on his £28billion green investment plan and ditch Labour’s candidate for the Rochdale by-election.
Here are the results:
Labour: 44% (-1)
Conservatives: 24% (+2)
Reform: 11% (-1)
Lib Dems: 9% (=)
Green: 8% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)
YouGov interviewed 2,030 adults in Britain between February 14 and 15. It compared figures with polling carried out between February 9 and 12.
Another one:
Labour: 42% (-2)
Conservatives: 23% (-1)
Lib Dems: 11% (+1)
Reform: 11% (+1)
Green: 7% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Other: 3% (=)
Techne UK interviewed 1,628 voters on February 14 and 15.
And a third:
Labour: 46% (+4)
Conservatives: 26% (=)
Lib Dems: 9% (-1)
Reform: 8% (-2)
Green: 6% (=)
SNP: 2% (-1)
WeThinkPolling interviewed 1,246 adults in Britain between February 15 and 16.
The Conservatives face an electoral wipeout that would see them lose more than three-quarters of their seats, according to a mega-poll.
The bombshell survey of 18,000 people forecasts that Rishi Sunak will be left with just 80 MPs, which would be the party’s worst result in history. Seventeen Cabinet ministers would be ousted with casualties including Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt, Gillian Keegan and Mel Stride.
The poll by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus predicts that Keir Stamer is heading for a Labour landslide with an unprecedented majority of 254 seats. This would be an even bigger victory than Tony Blair’s historic win in 1997.
Here are the results:
Conservatives: 22%, 80 seats, down 285 seats compared to 2019
Labour: 42%, 452 seats, up 249 seats
Lib Dems: 11%, 53 seats, up 42 seats
Reform: 10%, 0 seats, no change
Green: 7%, 2 seats, up 1 seat
SNP: 4%, 40 seats, down 8 seats
Find Out Now interviewed 18,151 adults in Britain online between January 24 and February 12.
Rishi Sunak has said that he will call an election this year - and there is wild speculation about when it will be.
Will it be in November, allowing the Prime Minister as much time as possible to turn things around without pushing the campaign into the run-up to Christmas?
Or could he go early - calling a snap election in May?
One of the key factors that will inform his thinking is how well the Tories are doing in the polls, which offer politicians a snapshot of the public mood.
We'll keep you up to date on all the latest polls and betting odds, to show how all the main parties are faring in the run up to the election.
