16 February 2024 , 22:20
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A dead satellite is to come crashing back to Earth next week - but scientists are clueless as to where it will land.
The European Space Agency (ESA) predicts that the European Remote Sensing 2 satellite (ERS-2) will re-enter our atmosphere in the early hours of Wednesday next week - at 2:34am, according to estimates. But this prediction could be off by as much as 31 hours either way.
ESA says the ERS-2's return is 'natural' because they can't control the satellite anymore. The only thing making the ERS-2's orbit decay is atmospheric drag, which changes due to unpredictable solar activity.
A spokesperson for the Agency said: "While we can forecast the re-entry to within a few days, it is not possible to predict exactly when and where the satellite will re-enter prior to its final few orbits." They added: "As we approach the day of re-entry, we will be able to predict a time and location with increasing certainty."
When the satellite re-enters, scientists say it will break into shrapnel, most of which will burn up. But despite the uncertainty, risks linked to satellite re-entries are very low.
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The ESA has released this graphic explaining the satellite's crash return to Earth (No credit)Launched in April 1995, ERS-2 was once Europe's most advanced Earth observation spacecraft. Alongside its almost identical twin, ERS-1, it gathered loads of important data on Earth's land surfaces, oceans and polar caps. It was even used to monitor natural disasters like severe floods or earthquakes in far-off parts of the world.
In 2011, after nearly 16 years of work, the ESA decided to end the mission. They made a series of moves to lower the satellite's average height and reduce the risk of it hitting other satellites or space junk.
Now, thirteen years later, the satellite is coming back into the lower parts of Earth's atmosphere, where it will start to burn up. Because we can't control the spacecraft's return, we don't know exactly when and where on Earth this will happen.
The ESA's Space Debris Office is keeping an eye on the satellite as its orbit gets smaller and will give regular updates in the days before it comes back. Angus Stewart, Head of Space Surveillance and Tracking at the UK Space Agency, said: "There are thousands of operational and defunct satellites in orbit around the Earth, and the ability to operate safely in space and bring the benefits back to Earth is growing increasingly challenging."
Referring to data from a partnership with satellite tracking company HEO, Mr Stewart said: "As well as capturing these images as part of our work with HEO, the UK Space Agency operates the UK’s re-entry warning service and has tasked our UK sensors to observe the re-entry of ERS-2.
"We share data with ESA and other international partners through the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) and other forums to support satellite re-entries." The UK Space Agency say UK scientists and engineers from organisations, including Astrium (now Airbus), the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Oxford University, the Mullard Space Science Laboratory and the Met Office, were involved in the doomed satellite’s design, build and scientific instruments.
ESA describe the ERS-2 re-entry as ‘natural’ as it is no longer possible to control the satellite. The only force causing ERS-2’s orbit to decay is atmospheric drag, which is influenced by unpredictable solar activity.