30 January 2024 , 12:01
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The UK's population could soar to nearly 74million within 12 years, new estimates show - a 6.6million rise since 2021.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) predicted there will be 541,000 more births than deaths by 2036, while net international migration will see 6.1 million more people settle here. By 2046 the population is predicted to reach 76.6million.
Today the Government announced a ban on overseas care workers bringing their family with them will take effect in mid-March - a move critics say will spell "disaster" for the struggling care sector.
Ministers insisted this will drive down net migration, but Unison branded the move "reckless" and warned it would make workers less likely to come to the UK at a time when there are around 152,000 care worker vacancies. The union's head of social, Gavin Edwards, said: “Ministers’ reckless changes to immigration policy spell disaster for social care. Until pay rates rise substantially, there'll never be enough UK-based recruits to plug the huge hole in the care workforce."
Latest projections suggest the population will grow by 6.6million in 15 years (ons.gov)After the ONS figures were released, Labour's Shadow Immigration Minister, Stephen Kinnock, said: “The higher net migration figures reflect 14 years of Conservative failure on the economy and immigration. The Tories’ record high net migration figures include a 65% increase in net migration for work and a 156% surge in health and social care visas as a result of their failure on skills, training and domestic workforce planning here in the UK."
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It comes as the Home Office announced it will bring in a raft of controversial restrictions aimed at slashing legal migration within weeks. In 2022 net migration reached a record 745,000.
Home Secretary James Cleverly said a ban on overseas care workers bringing family dependants and a drastically hiked salary threshold for skilled workers to £38,700 will deliver the "biggest ever reduction".And new rules expected in March will also make it harder for Britons earning under the national average to bring over foreign spouses.
Legal migration minister Tom Pursglove said the Home Office is "very confident" there will be a "meaningful reduction in net migration" as a result of changes to visa rules. But the figures will pile pressure on the Government to finally deliver on its pledge to build 300,000 new homes a year to meet growing demand.
The ONS has estimated that from 2028, net annual migration will be 315,000 a year - but said projections are dependent on Government policy. Within the next 15 years, it is expected there will be an additional one million people aged over 85.
James Robards of the ONS said: "Expert views and the latest data covering the last 10 years has led us to develop a long-term net migration assumption of 315,000 each year from year ending mid-2028 onwards. It is important to recognise that there is uncertainty in the provisional international migration estimates.
"Future migration will be affected by policy changes as well as the impact of as yet unknown migrant behavioural patterns in the future. Put simply, if migration comes down so will future projections."