18 January 2024 , 14:01
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Rishi Sunak has been slapped down by the official statistics watchdog over his claim the Government has "cleared" the asylum backlog.
The UK Statistics Authority launched an investigation after the PM was accused of a "barefaced lie" over the state of the backlog. Sir Robert Chote, the watchdog's chairman, has today ruled the "episode may affect public trust" and said it was not surprising "some people may feel misled" by the Government's announcement.
Lib Dem Home Affairs spokesman Alistair Carmichael lodged a complaint with the stats watchdog "to raise concerns about the misrepresentation of asylum backlog figures by the Prime Minister on social media". He pointed to a tweet by Mr Sunak on January 2 which said: “I said that this government would clear the backlog of asylum decisions by the end of 2023. That’s exactly what we’ve done.”
But Mr Carmichael pointed out the "legacy" backlog of applications had not been cleared, with figures showing more than 4,500 cases were still waiting an initial decision. Similarly he highlighted that the overall backlog of asylum cases was at 99,000 - a massive 16 times higher than when the Conservatives took power.
In response to Mr Carmichael's letter, Sir Robert said: "The average member of the public is likely to interpret a claim to have 'cleared a backlog' - especially when presented without context on social media - as meaning that it has been eliminated entirely, so it is not surprising that the Government's claim has been greeted with scepticism and that some people may feel misled when these 'hard cases' remain in the official estimates of the legacy backlog.
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"That said, there may be a perfectly good case for excluding cases of this type from any commitment to eliminate the backlog over the timeframe the Government chose, but this argument was not made at the time the target was announced or when it was clarified in the letter to the Home Affairs Committee."
He emphasised the need for ministers and advisers to "think carefully about how a reasonable person would interpret a quantitative claim of the sort and to consult the statistical professionals in their department", adding: "This episode may affect public trust when the Government sets targets and announces whether they have been met in the other policy domains."
While he welcomed the Home Office publishing data on such an "important policy area", he also noted the department did not disclose this at the same time as making the announcement in a press notice to journalists, "which prevented them from being able to scrutinise the data when first reporting it". "This does not support our expectations around intelligent transparency, and we have raised this with the Home Office," he said.
Responding to Sir Robert's ruling, Mr Carmichael accused the Tories of "twisting the facts". "Not only is the Conservative Government celebrating something that is no achievement, they are twisting the facts - as proven by the UK Statistics Authority just today," he said. "As this letter again shows, the Conservatives have not cleared the asylum backlog. Thousands of vulnerable people are still living in limbo as they wait for their claims to be processed. The British public deserves better than this."
Shadow Immigration Minister Stephen Kinnock said: "Labour wrote to the UK Statistics Authority a year ago to complain about Rishi Sunak repeatedly lying about the asylum backlog, and he was warned not to do it again. Yet once again he has been caught red handed. The Prime Minister’s addiction to playing fast and loose with the facts is the behaviour of someone not fit for public office. He has not cleared the backlog - there are 100,000 people still awaiting a decision. He should adopt Labour's backlog clearance plan, and deliver the security partnership we need to stop the boats getting in the water in the first place."
The Prime Minister has been criticised by the UK Statistics Authority on a number of occasions, including after he claimed the asylum backlog was half what it was when Labour was in office. Sir Robert said remarks by Mr Sunak and Tory frontbenchers Sarah Dines and Robert Jenrick "do not reflect" Home Office figures. He was also reprimanded last month after claiming the Government had reduced debt. Sir Robert said the PM's assertion "may have undermined trust in the government's use of statistics".
Downing Street said it would "consider" today's letter from Sir Robert to "ensure we can be as clear and transparent as possible". Asked whether there was a problem in No 10 with not being able to represent statistics accurately, given Sir Robert has previously criticised Mr Sunak's statements on reducing debt, a spokeswoman for the Prime Minister said: "I don't think that is right. We publish a wide range of statistical information and continue to do so."
She added: "We also linked through to the full story on Gov.uk with the details of our update on the legacy backlog and the PM was referring to a commitment he himself made and spoke about. But of course we will note the letter and consider it to ensure we can be as clear and transparent as possible."