21 October 2023 , 17:16
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Top Tories including Theresa May and Michael Gove would be at risk of losing their seats if Labour ’s blockbuster by-election results were repeated in a general election.
New analysis of how the mammoth swing to Labour in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth might affect a nationwide poll found the Tories would be down to as few as 50 seats in the Commons.
“No government has ever lost a seat as safe as Tamworth, while Labour’s victory in leafy Mid Bedfordshire illustrates how there aren’t any “no-go” areas for Kier Starmer’s party,” Polling expert Chris Curtis wrote for this newspaper. Tory sources attempted to play down the disastrous result for their party, arguing by-election results highlight local issues and "legacy" problems with the outgoing MP.
But the results mirrored national polls, which put Labour as many as 20 points ahead of the Tories. And many Conservative MPs who hoped that Rishi Sunak could turn the Tory ship around before an election next year saw Thursday night’s results as a sobering wake-up call. As well as former Prime Minister Mrs May and Brexit campaign figurehead Michael Gove, former Chancellor Sajid Javid and arch-Tory Jacob Rees-Mogg would be in line to lose their seats if the drubbing was mirrored across the country.
Pat McFadden, Labour’s National Campaign coordinator said: “The Conservatives’ real problem is that the Prime Minister isn to in charge of his party. He said: “Whether it’s Liz Truss, Suella Braverman or Nigel Farage, or someone else they are already circling for the time when he’s gone. And the public know that if the Tories got another five years, the chaos would all just carry on.”
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But Mr McFadden said his party would not be complacent. “These were fantastic results in what were very safe Conservative seats,” he said. “They show that people are putting more trust in a Labour Party that has been changed by Keir Starmer. But public trust is a fragile thing, and everyone in the Labour Party is conscious of the size of our task and we know we’ve still got an awful lot of work ahead of us.”