17 October 2023 , 20:13
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Britain's attempts to contain the pandemic were “never going to work”, top modeller Neil Ferguson has told the Covid-19 Inquiry.
The man dubbed “Professor Lockdown” criticised the Government’s lack of border restrictions, testing and contact tracing to stop the virus. It was his team’s modelling of deaths that eventually persuaded Boris Johnson Britain needed to shut up shop. Prof Ferguson was forced to quit the Sage advisory board after breaking lockdown rules with visits from his married lover.
Asked when he realised attempts to “contain” or mitigate the virus were not going to work, Prof Ferguson said it was “as soon as I heard what the measures were” in late January 2020. He stated: “I felt the contain phase never had any significant chance of preventing the infection entering the country or even significantly slowing its establishment.”
Sir Chris Whitty hoped pandemic would not be as bad as feared, hearing was told (POOL/AFP via Getty Images)A modelling report by Prof Ferguson’s team from Imperial College London predicted even the Government’s “mitigation” approach could lead to 250,000 deaths and intensive care units being overwhelmed. The scientist was asked repeatedly why he had not given bigger warnings in early 2020 over the potential death toll.
He replied: “I don’t think I stepped over that line to say, ‘We need to do this now’. What I tried to do was, at times... focus people’s minds on what was going to happen and the consequences of current trends.” The inquiry also heard England’s Chief Medical Officer Sir Chris Whitty was “hoping it won’t be as bad as we say” days before lockdown.
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