10 June 2023 , 06:30
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What will it be this time, Pep? Six midfielders or none? A demand for Erling Haaland to use his right foot only? Or maybe just a straightforward selection where the best players all play in their best positions?
Manchester City go into the Champions League final against Inter Milan in Istanbul as massive favourites, the treble a solitary win away.
And yet the big question in Turkey’s sprawling capital this morning is whether the overthinker has learnt his lesson after years of mistakes, misfortune and failures.
The biggest reference point to determine how much has changed will be the 2021 final defeat to Chelsea, where bad decisions and bad luck meshed on a miserable night in Porto.
In terms of selection, at least, the team on show tonight – even barring a surprise – will have had four considerable tweaks.
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First, this time there will be a striker. And not just any centre forward, but Erling Haaland. In 2021, Guardiola used De Bruyne as a false nine and he ended up departing injured after having his face smashed by Antonio Rudiger in the first half. Gabriel Jesus and Sergio Aguero began on the bench.
Haaland’s inclusion brings not just goals but added physicality against Inter’s three-man defence and a focal point. City are all the better for it.
Second, this time there will be a defensive midfielder. The decision to leave Rodri and Fernandinho on the bench two years ago remains hard to process now. But the former has been exceptional all season and the protection offered will be chalk and cheese. Factor in this season’s defining tactical tweak - John Stones stepping into midfield from right back when in possession - and there is a lot more meat on the bones.
Mason Mount of Chelsea is challenged by Kyle Walker of Manchester City during the 2021 final. (Getty Images)The third key factor should be Jack Grealish instead of Phil Foden. The £100m man has been outstanding in his second season at City and his match up against Matteo Darmian, who was mediocre at Manchester United, could prove a decisive duel.
And fourth will be the experience and bitter taste left by recent failures. Oleksandr Zinchenko, Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus have all been sold since the 2021 final but the core remains; older, wiser and with another two seasons of domestic dominance under their hat.
Guardiola may be calling on his players to maintain their composure and not let history weigh heavily tonight. Yet the past must surely be used as fuel. Failing to get over the line this time should define his entire spell - regardless of any future redemption.
Manchester City vs Chelsea in 2021 (changes in bold): Ederson; Walker, Stones, Dias, Zinchenko; Bernardo Silva, Gundogan, Foden; Mahrez, De Bruyne, Sterling.
Predicted City team vs Inter tonight: Ederson; Walker, Dias, Ake; Stones, Rodri; Bernardo Silva, De Bruyne, Gundogan, Grealish; Haaland.