27 January 2024 , 00:00
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Mercedes and McLaren have been overlooked by one Formula 1 veteran who thinks Red Bull are likely to have a different main rival this season.
Last year, the champions were able to go about their work virtually unchallenged. Their fearsome RB19 machine was so powerful compared to the rest of the cars on the grid that it failed to win just one of the 22 Grands Prix held, in Singapore.
In the battle to finish a distant runner-up to Red Bull, the balance of power was ever-changing throughout the season. Aston Martin began strongly but they did not progress as quickly as McLaren, who had an awful start but got better as the year went on.
Ferrari and Mercedes also had several weekends each where they probably had the second-quickest car. By the end of the year, Lando Norris and Lewis Hamilton were probably the two most likely challengers to Max Verstappen.
That has got plenty of people predicting that the same will be the case when the new campaign gets under way. McLaren in particular have been heavily tipped to take the fight to Red Bull this year.
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But former Mercedes chief executive Nick Fry is not convinced. Now non-executive chairman at McLaren Applied, the 67-year-old has a reason not to back his employer's F1 outfit and, instead, thinks Charles Leclerc and his Ferrari team might be the ones to lead the charge against the defending champions.
"I believe that McLaren will continue to improve," he told OLBG. "I hope they're in a position to win races. I'm not sure if they're good enough to consistently beat Red Bull or Ferrari yet... I think that's a stretch. McLaren have to be realistic about their evolution.
Charles Leclerc and Ferrari have been tipped to be the main challengers to Red Bull in 2024 (Getty Images)"Some of the investments made at Mercedes, like the world-class wind tunnel, were done in my day. The wind tunnel was built in around 2005 or 2006, so it has been contributing for a very long time. McLaren are starting to invest in some of those facilities, but it should have happened a long time ago.
"Instead of having Norman Foster design their building, they could have invested in better engineering equipment! That was the decision made a long time ago and fortunately the McLaren owners have understood and have invested in those things now. They will be a good investment for the future.
"I have my fingers crossed for them this season, but it's a stretch to believe they can beat Red Bull. I think they'll still dominate. I think Ferrari will continue to improve. Fred Vasseur is very experienced as a team leader, and I think he'll provide the air cover from the pressures of the Italian media. I think he'll do a good job with that and keep the team calm. You have to be fairly unemotional.
"I'm sorry to say this, but I don't see the technical team as strong enough at my former team, Mercedes. Competing with Adrian Newey's team is a tall order. They're a great team of people, but they've fallen so far behind by taking a different technical route. The rate of improvement is significant year upon year, but spending a year or two with a different concept that doesn't work results in trouble.
"It's easy to say that in hindsight, but they're learning what the likes of Red Bull learned a long time ago. It's difficult to catch up. I'm sure they'll be good, but I'm not sure if they'll be exceptional. I can't see Mercedes consistently beating Red Bull. It's hard for me to admit as I have such a deep attachment to them, but I think it's going to be difficult this year.
"Ferrari would be my favourites to push Red Bull. My eight-year-old daughter has a strong preference for Charles Leclerc, and she said I had to say Ferrari!"