24 November 2023 , 18:00
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If Manchester City beat Liverpool on Saturday we might as well hand them the title.
There you go – I've gone early and called it before the end of November. I bolted and went early in each of the last two seasons, and City proved me right both times.
After 12 games last season, Pep Guardiola's men trailed Arsenal by a single point at the top, but they had still collected 29 points and scored 40 goals. This year, after a dozen games, they have taken 28 points, they are top of the pile – and I don't see anyone catching them.
Some critics say they haven't looked as sound defensively, but they have conceded one goal fewer (12) than at the same stage last season, so they can't be floundering too much at the back.
Maybe they are missing Kevin De Bruyne's creativity a little as they have scored eight goals fewer in the first 12 games, but Rodri is playing like the best No.6 in the world and Erling Haaland has 'only' scored 17 goals in all competitions (he had 23 at the same stage in 2022-23).
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And there doesn't look much wrong to me when Guardiola can unleash Jeremy Doku and Phil Foden one week or Jack Grealish and Julian Alvarez the next.
Games between City and Liverpool are the new title deciders in the same way that Manchester United v Arsenal, Sir Alex Ferguson v Arsene Wenger, used to be the biggest game on English football's calendar for a decade.
United v Liverpool probably remains the biggest in terms of a global audience, but Jurgen Klopp pitting his wits against Guardiola has become the Premier League's version of El Clasico in Spain.
Jeremy Doku has been electric for Manchester City and can be the difference vs Liverpool (Getty Images)For me, the critical areas will be Haaland against Mo Salah in the shoot-out between the best strikers in the land, and whether Trent Alexander-Arnold can keep Doku's blistering turn of speed on a tight leash.
Haaland's incredible record for City – 69 goals in 73 appearances – speaks for itself, but any discussion about the Premier League's top three strikers of the last decade must include Salah. To score 200 goals in six years, coming in off the right flank and not as a central No.9, is absolutely tremendous.
But it's TAA's battle with Doku which holds the key. People who watch Liverpool every week say Alexander-Arnold last played as a conventional full-back in the 4-1 defeat at the Etihad last season.
His adapted role as an inverted full-back venturing forward into midfield areas has been part of Klopp's success story in refreshing Liverpool's engine room, where Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai look like top recruits. But can they contain Doku, Foden and Bernardo Silva?
As good as Liverpool's transformation in midfield has been, I just can't see any way that City lose this one. Imagine containing Doku, Foden and Haaland for an hour, only to see Grealish and Alvarez coming off the bench.
Every great squad has two players to cover each position, and there is virtually nothing between City's first-choice XI and their 'understudies' in reserve. Win this weekend, and we can hand them the title – because De Bruyne is still to come back and it would take something extraordinary to stop them.