14 October 2023 , 06:30
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England are poised to suffer semi-final heartbreak at the Rugby World Cup, according to the statisticians.
England have been inconsistent throughout the World Cup and face Fiji in the quarters - aiming to exact revenge after a first ever loss to the Pacific Islanders at Twickenham back in August. A win would set up a potential clash wither either the hosts France or South Africa, but they have been given just a 8.8 percent chance of winning the World Cup whilst the previously unfancied Wales have a 9.1 percent chance.
Warren Gatland inherited a side in disarray and oversaw a poor Six Nations but they have won all four of their games at the tournament thus far and are outsiders to land the trophy in Paris in a couple of weeks. Argentina stand in their way in the last eight before a possible semi-final against Ireland or New Zealand.
A renowned sport statistician has crunched the numbers on the knockout stages and believes Ireland are most likely to win the tournament, which would be their first ever success. The Irish have a 21.1 percent probability of claiming glory, which would follow on from their Grand Slam success in the Six Nations.
They beat France in a thriller in Dublin earlier this year and it is the hosts who are the second biggest fancy with 20.1 percent probability of claiming World Cup victory. Les Bleus have been aiming to peak for the tournament on home soil and have made light work of their opponents thus far.
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South Africa, aiming to become just the second team after New Zealand to go back-to-back, have an 18.9 percent chance of retaining their crown. The All Blacks have come in somewhat under the radar after a below par period and have the fourth most likely chance according to the numbers.
A Fijian win would be among one of sport's greatest stories but they have been given just a one percent chance of victory in France. They have been the most successful of an Pacific Island nation at the World Cup, claiming a first win over Australia at the tournament several weeks ago.
Ireland are the statistician's pick to win the World Cup
Wales have a higher chance of claiming glory than England, according to the numbersIreland's Conor Murray, who has been part of several World Cup campaigns, insists he and his team-mates must deliver on their performances over recent years if they are to end their quarter-final hurt.
He said: "We've talked about it and people have talked about what we've done over the last number of years, about the level of performance we've been able to achieve, and the big wins, and things like that. There is massive belief in terms of the ability we have in the squad, and what we can do.
"On the other side, there's enough of us in the room that have been through these quarter-finals and know how tough they are to win. It all comes down to on the day. We've done good things over the past few years. There's probably a bit more built up behind us in terms of what we've done. So yeah, we feel in a good space in terms of what we can deliver."
Mathematical probability of winning Rugby World Cup final
Ireland 21.1%
France 20.1%
South Africa 18.9%
New Zealand 17.1%
Wales 9.1%
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England 8.8%
Argentina 3.9%
Fiji 1.0%
To be part of the Rugby World Cup action and watch your nation take on the probabilities head to https://www.sportsbreaks.com/Rugby/Rugby-World-Cup-2023.